COVID-19 could be a seasonal disease
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e="text-align: center;">COVID-19 could be a seasonal disease: Greater risk in winter

A research carried out in Sydney during the early COVID-19 epidemic phase has discovered an association between reduced humidity and a rise in locally acquired positive cases. Scientists found the number of COVID-19 cases could increase by 6% if there is a 1% decrease in humidity.

Professor Michael Ward, Study lead, an epidemiologist in the Sydney College of Vet Scientific Research, the University of Sydney, and two researchers from companion establishment Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, China, is the first peer-reviewed study in the southern hemisphere on the relationship between COVID-19 and climate.

He added, “COVID-19 is likely to persist in periods of reduced humidity and it can be a seasonal disease. We need to be thinking it could be COVID-19 time if it’s wintertime”.

This research is published in Transboundary and Emerging Diseases on 2nd June 2020.

To determine how this relationship functions and the degree to which it drives the COVID-19 case, more studies including during winter in the southern hemisphere are required.

Earlier research study has found an association between climate and occurrence of SARS-CoV cases in China and Hong Kong, and occurrence of MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia, and a new study on the COVID-19 outbreak in China found a link between transmission and daily relative humidity and temperature.

Professor Ward said, “We were interested to see if the link between COVID-19 cases and the climate was different in Australia in late summer and early autumn as the pandemic took place during the winter in China, North America, and Europe”.

He added, “The research led us to discover that rather than colder temperatures the lower humidity is the main driver here – in case of climate”. “It suggests when we have a drop in humidity, we may see an enhanced danger in the winter season here. However, there might be a risk even during the summer when the humidity drops in areas with lower humidity or during the time when the humidity drops, in the northern hemisphere, so vigilance must be continued”.

Why humidity matter?

The association between transmission of airborne viruses and humidity has few biological reasons behind it, said Professor Ward.

He added, “The air is drier when the humidity is reduced, and it makes the aerosols smaller sized”. “These smaller infectious aerosol remain suspended in the air for a longer period when you sneeze and cough. This intensifies the exposure for the disease for other individuals. Aerosols drop and strike surfaces faster when the air is humid and aerosols are heavier and larger”.

The research method

749 locally obtained cases of COVID-19  was studied by Professor Ward and his team. The cases were mostly between 26 February 2020 to 31 March 2020 in the Greater Sydney area, New South Wales. The patients’ postcodes were matched with the nearby climate observation station and the data from January to March 2020 were studied and data included the rainfall, temperature, and humidity.

The research discovered reduced humidity was associated with increased case alerts.

Professor Ward said, ” This suggests that we should be cautious while entering into dry winter, and the month August has the average lowest humidity in Sydney.

He added, “Despite the fact that the COVID-19 cases have decreased in Australia, we still need to be watchful and public health systems need to be aware of potentially increased threat when we remain in a low humidity period”. “Recurring testing and surveillance continue to be vital as we enter the winter – when problems might favor the spread of COVID-19”.

Further research study

Further research is required in the months ahead and more afield as the research was limited to cases contracted in the summer months primarily in and around Sydney. An additional aspect could be the colder temperatures in winter.

Author: Sruthi S

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