India emerging as new coronavirus epicenter
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India emerging as new global coronavirus epicenter 

With setting a record for the most significant single-day rise in new COVID-19 positive cases, India is rapidly becoming the world’s new virus epicenter. According to experts, the country will soon become as the worst hit country by overcoming Brazil – and ultimately, the U.S.

India reported 78,761 new positive cases of COVID-19 on 30 Aug, 2020, the highest number of cases any country has ever reported in one day. The country also reported 971 fatalities on 31 Aug, 2020, pushing the Asian country past Mexico for the 3rd highest number of fatalities around the world. According to the current graph, outbreak in India will overshadow Brazil’s in about 1 week, and in around 2 months, it will surpass the U.S.

Even after 7 months of reporting its very first coronavirus case on Jan 30, 2020, India’s case growth is still increasing, unlike the U.S. and Brazil. After racing through its densely populated mega-cities, the virus has just reached the vast rural areas of the country, having around 1.3 billion population.

Naman Shah, infectious disease epidemiologist, the National Institute of Epidemiology and a member of the Indian government’s COVID-19 task force, said that

it’s inescapable that India’s outbreak will become the world’s largest as India is the 2nd largest country and one with a relatively poor public health system around the globe.

He also added that it would not be unforeseen, no matter what the country does.

The pandemic poses a unique concern to poorer nations. The slums with huge population is a suitable conditions for the viral spread, while their financial instability means that the lockdowns necessary to contain the virus are unacceptable.

Economic situations around the developing globe have been forced to reopen even with the virus still running rampant, rapidly overwhelming underfunded medical facilities.

Italy, Spain, and the U.K. had the biggest outbreaks and reported the highest fatalities, and among other developing nations like Mexico, South Africa, and Peru, the U.S is the only advanced economy in the top 10 as of now.

The government of India had advised the population to “live with the virus” while providing local authorities the rights to enforce constraints, more than any other significant Asian nation, the economic situation in India is forecasted to have gotten 18% in the quarter to June from last year.

The number of people with signs of a past infection is between 40 and 200 times more than the official case count, according to the antibody studies carried out in New Delhi, and other cities. The actual size of country’s epidemic is likely far more than 3.6 million cases (as per the reported cases).

India’s COVID-19 cases has just begun, and most of the nation’s coronavirus burden thus far has hit on its megacities like Mumbai and New Delhi. However, the disease is currently beginning to move to its rural areas having almost 900 million population, and also where health-care facilities are inadequate. Shortage of testing and clinical help suggests that infections and fatalities are going unreported or unnoticed.

Ramanan Laxminarayan, Director, Centre for Disease Dynamics Economics and Policy said that the infection is shifting from metropolitan to rural areas. All these things imply that there will undoubtedly be much more fatality, which may go unreported.

As evidence that the country is managing the virus’ spread, even if not containing it, the government has pointed to India’s official death rate of around 1.8%.

However, to a large extent fatalities are underreported, as well as distorted by the nation’s disproportionately young populace. The population listed below the age of 35 (65% of the population) is the group which is least in risk of dying from coronavirus infection. India’s fatality rate was similar to the global average as per an age-adjusted analysis of India’s fatality rate conducted by 3 economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

CDDEP’s Laxminarayan said that – What they have done has delayed infections, however, that hasn’t been able to decrease the transmission, and it is never going to be feasible in a country with such the health facilities and huge population.

Source

India emerging as new global coronavirus epicenter 

Author: Sruthi S